Analyst Predicts Nintendo Switch 2 Sales for 2025

Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts robust US sales for the Nintendo Switch 2, projecting approximately 4.3 million units sold in 2025, contingent on a first-half launch. This prediction echoes the original Switch's impressive 4.8 million unit sales by the end of 2017, a figure that exceeded Nintendo's initial projections and necessitated air-freighting consoles to meet demand. The hope is that Nintendo has learned from past supply chain challenges.

Anticipation for the Switch 2 is palpable, frequently trending on social media. However, translating this online buzz into substantial sales remains uncertain. Several crucial factors will influence the Switch 2's performance in 2025, including launch timing and the competitiveness of its initial game lineup.

Piscatella's prediction, shared on Bluesky, anticipates the Switch 2 capturing roughly one-third of the US console market in 2025 (excluding handheld PCs). He acknowledges potential supply constraints due to high initial demand, though the extent of Nintendo's manufacturing preparations remains unclear. The company may have proactively addressed potential shortages, mirroring its response to the original Switch and PS5 launches.

Despite optimistic sales projections for the Switch 2, Piscatella predicts the PlayStation 5 will retain its leading position in US console sales. While the Switch 2's hype is undeniable, the anticipated 2025 release of Grand Theft Auto 6 for the PS5 could significantly impact sales, potentially overshadowing the Switch 2's launch lineup. Ultimately, the Switch 2's success hinges on the console's hardware capabilities and the quality of its launch titles.