Analysts on Nintendo Switch 2 Pre-orders: 'Unhinged Times' Due to Tariffs

The gaming community in the U.S. has been on a rollercoaster of emotions this week, starting with the full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, which was met with excitement but quickly followed by dismay over its $450 price tag and the $80 cost for Mario Kart Tour. The situation took another turn when Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders to assess the impact of the Trump Administration's sweeping new tariffs on international trade.

We've previously discussed the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential effects of these tariffs on the gaming industry as a whole. However, the pressing question now is what Nintendo's next move will be. With the looming possibility of pre-orders, will the Nintendo Switch 2 see an even higher price?

Typically, to answer such questions, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts who, while not fortune-tellers, often provide a well-informed consensus based on data and evidence. I've already done this twice this week, but this time, something unprecedented happened: every analyst I spoke with was stumped. Some guessed that Nintendo would raise prices, while others thought they might not, but all emphasized the current chaos and unpredictability. This has never occurred before, and no one can accurately predict the actions of Nintendo, the Trump administration, or any other stakeholders in the near future.

With that significant caveat in mind, here's what the analysts I spoke to had to say:

Sky-High Switch

The opinions among analysts were split. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially believed it was too late for Nintendo to raise prices after announcing them. However, the delay in pre-orders changed his mind, suggesting that Nintendo might have no choice but to increase prices for the system, games, and accessories. "It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes," he stated. He even speculated that the base model could reach $500 due to these "sky-high tariffs."

Mat Piscatella, a senior analyst at Circana, also leaned towards a price increase but acknowledged the unprecedented nature of the situation. He noted that the tariffs were much higher than anticipated, forcing businesses reliant on international supply chains to reevaluate their U.S. pricing. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to," he emphasized.

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicted that hardware prices would increase, but suggested that the impact on software might be less significant due to the growing dominance of digital distribution. "Regarding hardware, however, the situation is more sensitive. If a 20% tariff—or any substantial increase—were to be introduced, it’s unlikely that companies like Nintendo would absorb the additional cost by cutting into their margins," he explained.

Holding the Line

On the other hand, Joost van Dreunen, an NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, believes that while a price increase is possible, Nintendo will try hard to avoid it. He suggested that the $449.99 price point already accounts for potential economic challenges from trade disputes. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks," he said, adding that the unpredictability of these tariffs might still force Nintendo to reassess if the trade situation worsens.

Piers Harding-Rolls, a games researcher at Ampere Analysis, echoed this sentiment, warning of potential consumer backlash if prices were raised further. He believes Nintendo is hoping for a resolution over the next few weeks but acknowledges that everything is on the table now. "If the pricing does change, it will impact the brand and the US consumer’s view of the product at launch," he noted, suggesting that it might deter broader consumers during the crucial first holiday season.

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, a games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicted higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He referenced his earlier comments about Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions in certain markets to encourage digital purchases. "The tariff situation is so chaotic that Nintendo was in 'wait and see' mode," he explained, suggesting that the company might need to offset the tariffs' impact.

Elliott also painted a grim picture of the broader impact on the games industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He highlighted the challenges of shifting manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets and the logistical impossibility of moving entire supply chains to the U.S. "We are living in…there’s no other word for it...unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)," he stated, emphasizing that these tariffs would be detrimental to U.S. consumers and the gaming industry, contradicting the administration's claims of leading to a stronger, richer nation.

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